What does the WGA strike victory mean for SAG-AFTRA?

Los Angeles, California - A tentative deal to end the Writer's Guild of America (WGA) strike is only the first step in resolving an entertainment industry-wide crisis, as the bitter studio stand-off with the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) stretches on.

While the WGA reached a tentative deal on Monday, SAG-AFTRA remains on strike.
While the WGA reached a tentative deal on Monday, SAG-AFTRA remains on strike.  © MARIO TAMA/Getty Images North America/Getty Images via AFP

The WGA, which walked out back in May over demands including better pay and safeguards against the use of artificial intelligence, finally worked out a deal with studios, including Netflix and Disney, on Sunday night. Ratification of that agreement - first by the WGA board, then by its 11,500 members - is widely expected to be waved through without any obstacles in the coming weeks.

Picketing for writers has been suspended, and the guild has indicated that it could allow members to return to work before the final vote is counted. Late-night TV shows could even return to air "within the next two to three weeks," according to Variety, citing industry insiders.

But a far thornier issue is the still-ongoing strike by Hollywood actors, represented by the SAG-AFTRA union, which is likely to take weeks to resolve and will likely prevent any return to production in the immediate future. Even after that, with hundreds of film and TV shoots backed up, it could take months for Hollywood to clear the logistical logjam and get fully back to work.

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"There are presumably upwards of 1,500 productions that all want to start as soon as they can," said entertainment lawyer Jonathan Handel. "And so when SAG gives the word, they're all going to be competing simultaneously... it's absolute chaos."

"I don't think we're going to see normalcy in the production process until sometime after January or February," Handel added.

SAG-AFTRA demands create "huge roadblock" in strike negotiations

SAG-AFTRA, led by president Fran Drescher, remain on strike as they fight for more demands from the AMPTP.
SAG-AFTRA, led by president Fran Drescher, remain on strike as they fight for more demands from the AMPTP.  © Spencer Platt/Getty Images North America/Getty Images via AFP

The WGA's deal with studios achieved compromises on minimum wage increases, bonus payments for writers participating in hit shows, and guarantees that scripts using AI will not undercut human writers and their paychecks.

Many of these issues overlap with the actors' demands, but many SAG-AFTRA demands go further than those of the writers. These include steeper pay rises to counter rampant inflation and a residual share of revenue for streaming.

"I think basic wages going are going to be a huge roadblock towards the SAG deal in the next few weeks because of pattern bargaining," said Handel.

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In other words, studios are wary that whatever they offer to actors is likely to be demanded by other Hollywood professions, such as movie set crews and technicians (who have their own contract renegotiations next year.)

SAG-AFTRA's other demands include restrictions on the use of remote, self-taped auditions, which became ubiquitous during the pandemic but are widely disliked by many actors.

The clock is ticking for SAG-AFTRA members

Oscars season could get pretty messy this year if the actors' strike drags out much longer.
Oscars season could get pretty messy this year if the actors' strike drags out much longer.  © VALERIE MACON/AFP

Sunday's deal means SAG-AFTRA negotiators could meet with unions as soon as next week, for the first time since actors went on strike in July.

"The end of the WGA strike will hasten the end of SAG-AFTRA's walkout," predicted Variety.

But even "if things go smoothly - which is a fool's assumption - I still think it would take two to three weeks to get a SAG deal done... which takes you into October," said Handel. "Then there's the ratification process, which takes another month."

That means the clock is ticking for actors to be able to promote big year-end movie releases, such as Disney's superhero sequel The Marvels.

Meanwhile, publicists are desperate for their stars to start campaigning for some of the industry's biggest events - TV's Emmy Awards and the film industry's Oscars, which take place in January and March, respectively.

Cover photo: MARIO TAMA/Getty Images North America/Getty Images via AFP

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